RBC Heritage

RBC Heritage

It was a tough week for us at Augusta as none of our main team ever seriously threatened to don the Green Jacket. In the end then I was happy to salvage the week to a certain extent through a full place return from Xander Schauffele and a full place from Scottie Scheffler in the First Round Leader market.

Talking of Scheffler and it was of course him who went on to secure his second Masters trophy. It was a superb display from the world number one, who apart from a brief wobble during Saturday when he dropped three shots over two holes never looked anything but the winner. He truly is dominant in the game at the moment in a way we haven’t seen since the days of Tiger Woods and his performance, in what was a fantastic Masters to watch as a whole, left me regretting not putting him up at 4/1 before the off, something I had been very tempted to do!

So we move on and after the tension and high pressure stakes of Augusta the tour heads to one of the most iconic stops of the year, the RBC Heritage at Hilton Head.

Harbour Town Golf Links, Hilton Head has been the host course for the Heritage since 1969 and with the exception of 2020 when the schedule was re jigged due to the Covid-19 pandemic the event has pretty much owned its traditional slot of the week following the Masters since 1983.

The current sponsors RBC [Royal Bank of Canada] have been in place since 2012.

For the second year running the event has been given ‘elevated event’ status, however in addition this year the tournament has been reduced to a limited field, no cut event with seventy players scheduled to tee it up. The field will be made up of the top 50 qualifiers from the end of last season, the Next 10, the Swing 5 and sponsor exemptions.

As you would expect for an elevated event we have a very strong field on display with only Viktor Hovland of the leading names having withdrawn. As you would also expect the market is dominated by Scottie Scheffler, who it should be noted could easily withdraw if his wife goes in to labour. The two time Masters Champion is then followed by Rory McIlroy all in town and heading up the market, Xander Schauffele and Ludvig Aberg.

COURSE

Harbour Town is a par 71 measuring just on 7100 yards.

The course is a Pete Dye Design so do look at form on other Pete Dye courses currently played on tour, particularly TPC Sawgrass as well TPC River Highlands and the Stadium Course used for the American Express.

The greens are TiffEagle Bermuda.

Harbour Town is known as one of the most unique tests played on the PGA tour all year. It is seen as a Marmite type of course, the players either love it or hate it. Some players go there once and say “never again”, to others it’s their favourite stop on the tour all year.

What makes Harbour Town so different is the precision required of the tee. length is not important but positioning of your tee ball is.

Finding the fairway isn’t enough at Harbour Town. On most holes finding the correct portion of the fairway is key as otherwise you will be blocked out on your second shot by the trees.

It’s for this reason that shorter hitting, precision players such as Kuchar, Furyk, Gay and Donald have peppered the leader boards over the years.

In addition as players will inevitably miss their fair share of the smaller than average greens scrambling is a key stat this week and one that recent winners here have tended to feature highly on for the week.

Harbour Town is also a true links test with winds normally blowing to 20mph + at some stage of the week.

HISTORY

When assessing this event historically the most significant factor to weigh up is the mental fatigue that players feel when arriving here on the back of an arduous week at Augusta and there is no doubt this point has had a big bearing on the outcome here over the years.

Therefore while this was not relevant in 2020 due to the events revised slot in the schedule every other year over the recent decades it has been a key factor this year.

It’s a recognised fact that winning back to back on the PGA Tour is an incredibly tough thing to do and Bernhard Langer is the only player to notch ‘back to back’ wins at Augusta and Hilton Head [in 1985].

Throw in the mental reserves required to compete and contend right in the thick of a Major over the weekend and it is again not unsurprising that winners at Harbour Town tend not to have been in the hunt at Augusta the week before. To back this up let’s look at the recent winners at HH and see how they fared at the Masters.

Winner - Masters Finish

2023 M Fitzpatrick      10

2022  J Spieth               MC

2021  S Cink                   12^th

2020 W Simpson [Not played in traditional post Masters slot.]

2019    CT Pan             DNP

2018    S Kodaira          28th

2017    W Bryan            DNP

2016    B Grace           MC

2015    J Furyk             MC

2014    M Kuchar         5th

2013    G McDowell    MC

2012    C Pettersson   DNP

So, as we can see if we put the 2020 edition to one side when the event did not directly follow the Masters in the other 11 outings noted only three players, Stewart Cink in 2021 and Matt Kuchar have won at Harbour Town after featuring near the top end of the leaderboard at Augusta the week before and of those three Kuchar is the only one who was in serious contention at any point.

Of the other 8 winners one of them, Kodaira in 2018, played all four rounds at Augusta, five of them including Spieth last year missed the cut and the other three had not been in the Masters field at all.

Furthermore if we look at the 2020 RSM Classic the event that followed the 2020 Masters in the schedule and we’ll see that this was won by Robert Streb, another player who didn’t tee it up at Augusta.

So the message is clear, do not be put off if the player you fancy for the week performed badly at the Masters, In fact the opposite seems to apply, as it is possible if your hunch for the week performed well at Augusta they will turn up at Harbour Town jaded and will under-perform.

The one curve ball of course I should point out is that with the event now having limited field elevated status, we have a smaller field with a stronger line up of, which are far greater percentage played at Augusta the previous week compared to years gone by. It is therefore much more likely that we see a continuation of a big name who played at Augusta winning following on from Fitzpatrick’s win last year.

So what more can we tell from this list? well firstly for want of stating the blindingly obvious Hilton Head is not a course that historically has rewarded the bombers of the game, on the contrary short and straight has always been the order of the day and with the exception of Branden Grace and Cink, who as a two time former winner could be considered something of a course specialist, you would have to go a long way down the driving distance charts each year to find the above 11 names.

With regards to the relevancy of previous course form here we have a bit of a mixed bag. Some players like Spieth, Cink, Furyk, Kuchar and more recently Grace and Simpson clearly seem to perform well here consistently, however the 2018 and 2017 winners, Kodaira and Bryan, were making their debut in the event, while the 2018 winner CT Pan had finishes of 44 and 23 in his two previous starts. Finally to bring us up to date last years winner Fitzpatrick is a self-confessed lover of Hilton Head, having spent family holidays here growing up. Add this to the fact he plays the event every year and had a previous best of fourth here and his win was no surprise.

As noted earlier with the event taking on ‘elevated event’ status we now do have a different dynamic in play.

That said it is clear that without this status and the money it offers this would not be on the schedule for the likes of Scheffler, McIlroy and Homa and it was very noticeable to me that even with other big names in the field last year like Rahm and Scheffler the finish was ultimately played out by three big name regulars here, Fitzpatrick, Spieth and Cantlay.

With regards to form coming in as touched on above this is muddled by the Augusta factor, however it is worth noting that only two of the past seven winners, Fitzpatrick last year and Cink in 2021, had posted a top 20 finish in their previous two starts and in 2019 CT Pan pitched up here having finished no better than 42^nd in the calendar year to date before taking home the trophy. In 2020 with the event being the second back Simpson won having missed the cut at the Charles Schwab the previous week however if we go back further the 2014 and 2012 winners, Kuchar and Pettersson had posted a top ten in their start prior to victory here.

Meanwhile Spieth triumphed in 2022 on the back of nothing better than 26^th in his previous six starts.

Not unsurprisingly for a links course the winning score tends to be dictated by the weather and how much the wind blows.

The lowest winning score over the past ten years was delivered by Simpson in 2020 who triumphed with a -22 total. The lowest total when the event has been played in its traditional April slot came from Cink in 2021 when he shot -19.

The average winning score though tends to come in around -13 or -12 although Fitzpatrick and Spieth both posted 17- under last year.

WEATHER FORECAST

The lead in to the week and the tournament as a whole looks dry with temperatures sitting around the high 70 to low 80s.

There is though the small possibility of a storm on Saturday as I write.

The wind, which is the most important factor here, looks like it will keep the players honest with 20mph+ gusts a possibility in the forecast all week.

As I always say though this could all change!

PICKS

I have gone with five players this week as follows;

PATRICK CANTLAY –  18/1 - 3pts E/W - 1/5 odds 1st 6 - FINISHED 3rd

I noted earlier that Hilton Head is one of those venues that historically PGA Tour players either seem to love and turn up every year for or, prior to its elevated event status swerve completely, and one player that most certainly falls in to the former camp here is Patrick Cantlay.

Although Cantlay is yet to win this event with the exception of the ‘covid year’ 2020, he has been an ever present here over recent years with a run of five top seven finishes, including four top three’s, in his past six visits. Basically Patrick for whatever reason loves the test here and seems to raise his game for it, regardless of the form he is in coming in.

Looking at Patrick’s finishes here over the years in relation to his form in the run in and we need to remember a couple of things. Firstly Cantlay has never been at his best in the Florida swing, nor indeed a regular visitor there, meaning he tends to play solidly in the first part of the year in his native California before fading from our consciousness in late February through March. Then historically this has been followed by the unpredictability of the Matchplay before Cantlay would play a light schedule leading in to Augusta. All of, which means strangely the Masters becomes something of a reset event for him before leading in to a busier time of year for him.

To sum up then it has been pretty common for Cantlay to arrive at Hilton Head having only teed it up three or four times in the previous couple of months and without a big finish in that period. Despite this though he time and again has then stepped up at Hilton Head.

Last year it must be said Patrick had produced some better form in Florida however in 2022 he had played four times in two months with no top 25s, prior to his runner up spot here.

Looking then at this years form and Patrick played strongly on the West Coast to finish, 11^th at Pebble Beach and fourth at Riviera and then true to form has on paper regressed slightly in his past three starts since the Genesis. Notably though at Augusta, in his first start since the Players, Cantlay ranked 13^th from tee to green and 10^th in Approach Play, the latter being an area, which he has struggled with the most so far this season, so encouraging signs. It was the putter then, which held him back from improving on his 22^nd place finish at the Masters.

Cantlay has always been a player who repeatedly plays well at the same tracks over and over again with The Shriners, The Memorial and this weeks event the three, which immediately spring to mind. This week then he looks a great bet to me to end that frustrating winless streak, which stretches back to 2022 on a course we know he loves.

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TOM KIM –  55/1 – 1pt E/W – 1/5 odds 1^st 7 - FINISHED 18th

Next up I will take a chance on Tom Kim.

Tom has had a slow start to his 2024 with his best finish being a 17^th place in Phoenix, furthermore his four starts prior to Augusta saw him WD, miss a cut and manage a best of 52^nd in the limited field API, pretty underwhelming stuff then.

Last week though at Augusta Tom produced a more eye catching week closing out with a best of the day 66 on Sunday to finish 30^th.

Looking at Tom’s week more closely at Augusta and what was really encouraging was his improvement with his iron play across the week as a whole and particularly on Sunday. Normally the 21yr olds strength he ranks 109^th on tour in approach play this season, however on Sunday at Augusta he was first from tee to green and second in approach.

Kim missed the cut here on debut last year however it is worth noting that followed a really encouraging 16^th on debut at Augusta and it is quite possible he suffered some mental let down following that week.

Instead then I will focus on the fact that as a shorter hitter with a stellar iron game when on song, who landed his maiden tour title at Sedgefield CC he really should be at home here. In addition having posted a runner up finish at the Open last year as will as two tens in the Scottish Open over the last two seasons we know he is comfortable in the wind. Also I can’t help but be drawn to the fact that he is a two time winner at TPC Summerlin, which links well here through Cantlay.

Finally, Tom has been open about his good friendship with Scottie Scheffler and it was noticeable he was there to congratulate the world number one by the side of the 18^th green at Augusta yesterday. It may just be then that witnessing that performance from Scottie is the spark Tom needs to get back on track this week at a course, which really should suit his game.

CHRISTIAAN BEZUIDENHOUT – 60/1 - 1pt E/W – 1/5 odds 1^st 7 - FINISHED 28th

Next for me this week is a player who wasn’t in Augusta last week, Christiaan Bezuidenhout.

Christiaan is in to his third full campaign on the PGA Tour now and its fair to say he seems to have now really found his feet Stateside.

To expand on this and after a trickier sophomore campaign Bez now sits 21^st on this years Fedex standings having posted a runner up finish and five further top 25s in ten starts to date. Handily for him also as his runner up spot came to Nick Dunlap, then still an amateur at the Amex, Christiaan bagged the first place cheque that week!

As well as giving Christiaan a nice chunk of change what that week showed us was that he is good on Pete Dye tracks and 13^th place finishes at The Players both last year and this reinforce that point of view.

To expand this further and as a neat and tidy player who putts well it is not surprising that the South African enjoys shorter layouts where strong iron play can flourish and strong finishes at the Sony, Pebble Beach and Colonial since he has been tour to go with those noted above rubber stamp that.

Furthermore Christiaan has not finish worst than 33^rd in his three previous visits here while last year’s 19^th place when he closed out with a 64 saw him rank sixth in putting and 20^th in approach play for the week.

Last time out Bez finished 25^th at the Valero, however prior to that on two courses, which I see as much more suited to his game he was ninth at the Valspar and as noted 13^th at TPC.

Currently ranked 24^th in approach on tour and 17^th in putting the key ingredients for this week are in good working order and arriving fresh while others may well be jaded from a long week at Augusta I can see him taking advantage and putting in a big performance.

TAYLOR MOORE –  70/1 – 1pt E/W - 1/5 odds 1st 7 - FINISHED 58th

Next up in a week where there are plenty of question marks around the majority of the big names at the top of the market I will stick once more with Taylor Moore who we have been on twice recently.

Moore is turning in to one of the most solid players on the tour week in week out and he is yet to miss a cut this campaign.

The key to Moore’s success appears to be his all round game, which sees him ranked solidly but not spectacularly in all key areas, other than the putter, for which he currently sits 93^rd.

Sixteenth this season on tour in good old fashioned GIR it is not surprising that Taylor took to Hilton Head on debut last year finishing 11^th, an impressive performance particularly as it came straight on the back of his Augusta debut. Interestingly as well Taylor putted really well here last year ranking second on the dance floor for the week so hopefully a return to these surfaces can inspire some improvement with the flatstick.

This year after a steady start to the season Taylor played nicely in the defence of his trophy at the Valspar to finish 12^th and then followed that up with a runner up finish in Houston when we were on board. Meanwhile at Augusta last week he improved on last years debut 39^th with a strong 20^th place, which saw him gain strokes in all key areas of the game, again other than with the putter.

Moore strikes me as a player who would not be overawed if in contention in this kind of company and I am happy to ride his current hot hand on a course where he showed a lot of promise on debut last year.

SEPP STRAKA –  80/1 – 1pt e/w – 1/5 odds 1^st 7. - FINISHED T5th

Finally I will wrap up with another player who flourishes where strong tee to green play is required, Sepp Straka.

Perhaps understandably after the highs of making the Ryder Cup team Sepp has started 2024 slowly. After a 16^th place finish at the Players though Sepp posted another 16^th at the Masters last week so there are signs his game is starting to fire.

Furthermore a look at his Augusta performance shows us that he ranked eighth from tee to green, 11^th off the tee and 11^th in approach play so his long game, normally his strength but substandard so far this year, looks to be rounding in to strong working order.

Obviously the challenges faced at Augusta are poles apart from those he will face at Hilton Head, however we don’t have to speculate over his level of comfort here as he notched a third place finish here in 2022. That result also came a week after his Masters debut where he was 30^th so we don’t have to be concerned over his ability to ‘get himself back up for it’ after a week at Augusta.

Based long term in Georgia Straka is clearly way more comfortable on the East Coast and having won at the Honda we certainly know he can play in the wind. I’ll take the Austrian  then to build on last week and go well in big company again.